Import and export growth in January double rebounded in the first quarter of foreign trade data or s

Import and export growth in January rebounded. According to the data released yesterday by the General Administration of customs, the value of our country's imports and exports was $380 billion 698 million in January, up 22% from the same year. Of which, exports increased by 200 billion 519 million US dollars, an increase of 11.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from December last year, and imports of 180 billion 179 million US dollars, an increase of 36.9%, a 32.4 percentage point increase over last December.

In terms of RMB, the import and export value of January was 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan, up 16.2% from the same period. Among them, the export was 1 trillion and 320 billion yuan, an increase of 6%, and the import of 1 trillion and 190 billion yuan, an increase of 30.2%.

“ the export growth in January was 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, mainly due to the lower base of last year. &rdquo, a senior research fellow of the Bank of China Financial Research Center, yesterday, He Fei told the public security daily reporter that from the perspective of trade structure, the general trade export growth in January was 12.3%. In January, the export of processing and assembly trade increased by 15.8%, up 24.2 percentage points from December of last year. Compared to general trade, processing trade contributed more to the growth of trade exports in January.

The data showed that exports to the United States, Europe and ASEAN were 11.09%, 10.26% and 18.4% respectively in January, and the export continued to grow steadily.

It is worth mentioning that the growth of imports in January was 19.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. “ imports increased substantially in January, and domestic demand was the main cause. From the data, domestic demand is exuberant, and the import demand for major commodities has increased significantly. ” He Fei further analyses it.

In addition, he said, in addition to domestic demand exuberant, there are four other factors to accelerate the increase in import growth. “ first, the cardinal factor, the lower import cardinality in January last year. Two is the holiday factor, compared to the Spring Festival in January last year, this year, the Spring Festival in February, the holiday effect pushed up the import growth. Three is the exchange rate factor. In January, the appreciation of the RMB to the US dollar was more than 3%, to some extent, it was also beneficial to the increase of import growth. The four is the policy factor. We should strive to narrow the trade surplus and become the main policy of foreign trade this year. This is clearly reflected in the January data. The trade balance in January decreased by 34 billion 345 million US dollars compared with December last year, narrowing 62.8%.
So, what is the future of foreign trade? Kyushu Global Securities chief economist Deng Haiqing said that despite the obvious data than expected along the import and export in January 2018, but taking into account the import and export data monthly volatility is very large and the Spring Festival effect, crude oil price changes and other uncertainties, the monthly processing trade jumped sustainability is problematic, import and export data remains to be seen.

“ the export guide index in January rose to 41.6%, indicating that future exports are expected to continue to maintain a better situation. At the same time, due to the entry into the Spring Festival in February, the holiday factors may affect the February import and export data, and the first quarter foreign trade data will be significantly fluctuated. In addition, trade frictions between China and the United States have been further intensifying in the near future, and the growth of foreign trade is still facing more uncertainty. ” he thinks that.